摘要：2005年人民币汇率改革后，人民币汇率波动幅度加大，单边趋势被打破，汇率的波动呈现不稳定的变化。对我国经济和贸易的产生了深远的影响，尤其是对外贸产业影响更加巨大。我国是全球的纺织品出口大国人民币汇率波动对我国的纺织品出口有着密切的关系。

本论文研究内容分为以下几点：一是介绍人民币汇率波动的现状及趋势和我国纺织品出口的现状。首先是介绍人民币汇率波动的现状和我国国内外的影响因子；然后就是说明我国纺织品出口的状况及其总体的特征。二是理论分析，利用经济学中的弹性需求理论，利用我国纺织行业自身的特点以及纺织品出口的特点出发来解析人民币的汇率变化对于我国纺织品出口的影响。之后是通过数据分析，运用计量经济学中的数据检验方法研究人民币汇率波动对我国纺织品出口的影响，选取人民币对美元的汇率、对美纺织品的年出口额等变量进行分析，最终通过理论与实证分析得出结论。三是依据理论分析和实证分析得出的结论，并且结合我国纺织品出口的特性来提出一些有针对性的和有可行性的政策及建议，以此来促进我国纺织业的快速发展。

本文用理论分析和实证分析两方面来研究人民币汇率波动对我国纺织品出口的影响。理论上的解析是通过我国纺织业出口现状以及自身特点来解析人民币汇率波动对其造成的影响。在实证研究中通过建立简单的回归模型,分析人民币汇率波动对于我国纺织品出口造成的影响。最后在理论与实证的基础上提出相应的政策与建议。

关键词：汇率波动;纺织品出口;影响因子

Analysis of the Impact of RMB Exchange Rate Fluctuation on China's Textile Exports

Abstract：After the reform of the RMB exchange rate in 2005, the RMB exchange rate fluctuates, the unilateral trend is broken, and the exchange rate fluctuations show an unstable change. It has had a profound impact on China's economy and trade, especially on the foreign trade industry. China's RMBexchange rate fluctuations in the world's major textile export countries have a close relationship with China's textile exports.

The research content of this thesis is pided into the following points: First, introduce the current situation and trend of RMB exchange rate fluctuations and the status quo of China's textile exports. The first is to introduce the current situation of RMB exchange rate fluctuations and the impact factors at home and abroad; then, it is to introduce the status of China's textile exports and its overall characteristics. The second is theoretical analysis, using the theory of elastic demand in economics, using the characteristics of China's textile industry and the characteristics of textile exports, to analyze the impact of exchange rate changes in the RMB on China's textile exports. This is followed by an empirical analysis, using data testing methods in econometrics to study the impact of RMB exchange rate fluctuations on China’s textile exports, selecting RMB-US dollar exchange rates, annual exports of US textiles, and other variables, and finally passing theoretical and empirical evidence. The analysis concludes. Third, based on the theoretical analysis and empirical analysis of the conclusions, combined with the characteristics of China's textile exports to put forward some targeted and feasible policies and recommendations, in order to promote the rapid development of China's textile industry.

This paper uses theoretical analysis and empirical analysis to study the impact of RMB exchange rate fluctuations on China's textile exports. The theoretical analysis is to analyze the impact of RMB exchange rate fluctuations on the status quo of China's textile industry and its own characteristics. In an empirical study, a simple regression model was established to analyze the impact of RMB exchange rate fluctuations on China's textile exports. Finally, put forward corresponding policies and suggestions on the basis of theory and demonstration.