摘  要：新常态下，服务贸易是稳就业、调结构、提高发展质量新的增长点。发展服务贸易是对外贸易稳增长、调结构的必然要求，不仅能促进江苏对外贸易由“大进大出”转向“优进优出”，也能形成制造业与服务业“双引擎”的格局，促进江苏经济向“制造-服务型”经济转变。理清服务贸易促进经济增长的机理、提高江苏服务贸易的经济增长贡献度是本文研究的主要问题。本文首先采用理论研究的方法，对服务贸易与经济增长相关概念进行界定,对江苏服务贸易与经济发展现状、服务贸易促进经济增长的路径进行了阐述。其次，以2000-2014年的数据为基础，对江苏服务贸易对经济增长的贡献度进行实证分析。最后有针对性的提出推进江苏发展服务贸易的应对策略。

关键词：服务贸易；经济增长；实证分析

The empirical study of service trade contribution to economic growth in Jiangsu province

Abstract：Against the background of new normal economy, Developing trade in services has become crucial in stablizing and increasing employment, restructuring economy as well as improving the quality and efficiency of development. It is a prerequisite for the steady uprising of foreign trade and restructure of economy which is conducive to turning the foreign trade from “considerable import and export” to “qualitative import and export”. It is also beneficial for Jiangsu economy to convert into manufacturing-service economy and consequently form a “double-engine” setup supported by manufacturing and service industry. Making clear of the mechanism of how to promote economic growth and upgrading the contribution to economic growth are going to be discussed comprehensively in this thesis. The thesis first and foremost adopts theoretical research methods to define some concepts which are related to trade in services and economic growth. Besides, it also introduces the current state of trade in services and economic development in Jiangsu Province and the approaches of trade in services to promoting economic growth. Secondly, on the basis of the data from 2000 to 2014, it empirically analyzes the contribution to economic growth. At last, it also pertinently puts forward strategies which can help promote the trade in services in Jiangsu Province.

Key Words: service trade；economic growth；empirical study  

目  录

摘要Ⅰ

Abstract-Ⅱ

目录Ⅲ

一、引言-1

（一）选题背景和意义-1

（二）文献综述1

二、江苏服务贸易与经济增长状况3

（一）主要概念的界定-3

（二）江苏服务贸易发展特征分析4

（三）江苏经济增长特征分析6

三、服务贸易促进经济增长的机理分析8

（一）服务贸易-总需求-经济增长8

（二）服务贸易-总供给-经济增长-10

四、江苏服务贸易促进经济增长的实证分析-11

（一）模型建立与数据来源11

（二）平稳性检验13

（三）回归结果分析-15

五、结论与对策建议-17

（一）结论  17

（二）对策建议-17

参考文献19

一  引言

（一）选题背景和意义

1.选题背景

江苏依托得天独厚的地理位置，贸易发展“走出去”时间早，服务贸易和全国其他同等省份相比，具有发展早、成长快和规模大的特点。在江苏对外贸易总额中，服务贸易贡献力度逐年攀升。“十三五”政策规划下，江苏经济转型升级，服务贸易已成为拉动江苏经济增长的新动能。2001年加入世界贸易组织以来，货物贸易快速发展，由此带来的资源短缺和环境污染问题使得人们越来越多的关注经济增长质量。经济可持续发展中，落后的对外贸易与经济增长方式是关键的制约因素，是江苏“十三五”背景下建设外贸强省目标的拦板，发展服务贸易促进经济增长和贸易方式转变已经成为一项紧迫任务，服务贸易已经成为一个地区或国家经济是否发达的衡量标志。