摘    要:自二十世纪九十年代以来，我国房地产发展迅猛，为我国贡献了大量的GDP比重。在当下中国，我国房地产金融属性强，从GDP比重、房地产业的需求收入弹性、房地产吸纳的就业人数等关键因素来看，都达到了国民经济支柱产业的标准。并且房地产行业具有带动性强的特点，能够很好的带动上下游产业，对于我国经济的稳定发展具有举足轻重的作用。目前我国房地产市场制度和法律正在逐渐完善，然而由于房地产市场机制的问题，以且国内房地产的风险防控研究起步较晚，所以正确地对房地产风险进行识别并做出适当的防范措施是房地产业应当解决的问题。本文从房地产的系统风险和非系统风险两方面入手，借鉴欧美发达国家以风险—收益为核心的风险分散经验和现代组合投资理论，先从金融周期方面分析房地产风险防控的有关措施，并建立在一定的预期收益下，寻求风险最小的房地产组合投资模型并进行实例分析。最终得出在一定的期望收益下，适当的投资组合策略可以分散风险，使组合投资风险远远小于单项投资的结论。  

Since 1990s, the rapid development of real estate in China has contributed a lot of GDP to our country. In the present China, China's real estate financial property is strong, from the proportion of GDP, the elasticity of the demand income of the real estate industry and the number of employment in the real estate, all of which have reached the standard of the pillar industry of the national economy. And the real estate industry has a strong driving characteristics, which can promote the upstream and downstream industries well, which plays an important role in the stable development of our country's economy. At present, China's real estate market system and law are gradually improving, however, due to the real estate market mechanism, and the domestic real estate risk prevention and control research started late, so the correct identification of real estate risk and to make appropriate preventive measures are the problems that the real estate industry should solve. Starting with two aspects of the system risk and non systematic risk of real estate, this paper draws on the risk dispersion experience and modern combined investment theory, which is the core of the developed countries in Europe and America, and analyzes the relevant measures of the real estate risk prevention and control from the financial cycle, and seeks the least risk under the expected income. The real estate portfolio investment model is also analyzed. It is concluded that under certain expected returns, the appropriate portfolio strategy can persify the risk and make the portfolio investment risk far less than the single investment .

关键词：房地产组合投资；风险分散；期望收益；马科维兹投资组合；康德拉季耶夫周期；

Keyword: Real Estate Portfolio; Risk dispersion; Expected return; Markowitz Mean-Variance Model；Kondratieff  Cycle

目录

一. 引言 5

二. 房地产投资发展和风险研究现状 7

三. 房地产投资风险分析 8

（一）房地产投资风险概述 8

（二）房地产投资系统风险分析 8

（三）房地产投资非系统风险分析 9

四. 房地产投资非系统风险分散模型 10

（一）马科维兹投资组合模型的应用 10

（二）模型中有关参数的确定 12

五. 杭州市广厦天都城实例分析 13

（一）杭州市广厦天都城简介 13

（二）模型数据分析 13

六. 总结和展望 14

第一章 引言

一直以来，我国国民都对房地产情有独钟，而且房地产对金融市场的强依赖性也一向存在着。向为民（2008）对于国内房地产行业的支柱产业地位进行了量化分析，根据居民民意调查指数、CPI、消费投资比等各项数据，首先计算了房地产行业占GDP的比重，从1994-2004年这十年间，增加值占GDP的比分别为1.86%，1.81%，1.69%....2.23%，5.24%，有着逐年增长的态势，国家统计局显示从2017-2018年更是超过15%，表示房地产增长率在GDP比重方面已经确定是支柱型产业。其次，学者根据房地产业的影响力系数和感应系数入手， 计算出结论影响力系数并不满足房地产业是支柱产业的标准，但是从GDP比重、房地产业的需求收入弹性、房地产吸纳的就业人数等都达到了支柱性产业的标准，在综合指标的判断下，可以判断房地产行业为支柱型产业。特别是近年来，我国房地产占GDP比重增加平稳，并且当下影响力系数和感应系数入手都已经达到了支柱型产业的标准。