摘要：改革开放以来，农村劳动力的大量转移成为普遍现象，对其开展研究有助于农村劳动力转移的有效管理。本文以浙江省为研究区域，首先测算了2006-2016年期间浙江省的农村转移劳动力，然后定量分析了浙江省农村劳动力转移的驱动因素，最后预测了未来10年浙江省农村剩余劳动力的转移趋势。结果表明：研究期间浙江省的社会经济和劳动力总量均持续增长，但是随着城镇化水平提高以及农村剩余劳动力存量减少，农村转移劳动力整体呈下降趋势；城镇化率、农业剩余劳动力和城乡人均可支配收入之比是农村剩余劳动力转移的主要驱动因素，体现了城市化进程中的推力与拉力作用；2017-2025年期间，浙江省农业剩余劳动力将逐渐减少，农村劳动力转移数量也呈递减趋势。

关键词：浙江省；农村剩余劳动力；转移；驱动因素；趋势

The Driving Factors and Forecasting of Surplus Rural Labor Force Transfer in Zhejiang Province

Abstract: Since the reform and opening up, the large-scale transfer of rural labor force has become a common phenomenon, and Research on it will contribute to the effective management of rural labor force transfer. In this paper, Zhejiang Province is taken as the research area. Firstly, the transfer of rural labor force in Zhejiang Province during 2006-2016 is measured, then the driving factors of rural labor force transfer in Zhejiang Province are quantitatively analyzed, and finally the transfer trend of rural surplus labor force in Zhejiang Province in the next 10 years is predicted. The results show that the total social economy and labor force of Zhejiang province have been increasing continuously during the study period, but with the increase of urbanization level and the decrease of rural surplus labor force stock, the overall trend of rural transfer labor force is declining; urbanization rate, the ratio of agricultural surplus labor force to per capita disposable income of urban and rural areas are the main driving factors of rural surplus labor force transfer, which reflects the city. The driving force and pulling force in the process of industrialization; during 2017-2025, the surplus agricultural labor force in Zhejiang Province will gradually decrease, and the number of rural labor force transfer will also show a decreasing trend.

Keywords:Zhejiang Province; Surplus rural labor force;Transfer; Driving factors; Forecasting

目录

摘要 1

关键词 1

Abstract 1

Keywords 1

引言 1

一、研究现状 2

（一）农村劳动力的转移特点与存在问题 2

（二）劳动力转移的驱动力因素 3

（三）劳动力转移的效应 3

（四）转移劳动力的管理 4

二、研究区域概况 4

（一）社会经济背景 4

（二）劳动力概况 5

三、研究内容 5

（一）农村转移劳动力测算 5

1. 估算办法 5

2. 估算结果 6

（二）农村剩余劳动力转移的驱动因素 6

1. 驱动因素分析 6

2. 方程构建 6

（三）农村劳动力转移预测 7

1. 预测方法 7

2. 预测结果 7

四、讨论 8

致谢 9

参考文献 9

表1 浙江省2006-2016年城镇化率与农业劳动力数据 6

表2劳动力转移数量预测值 8

浙江省农村剩余劳动力转移的驱动因素与趋势分析

引言：上世纪80年代以来，随着我国城市化进程的推进和机械化、规模化农业经营模式的推广，隐性失业的农村劳动力得以释放，剩余劳动力开始向城镇和非农产业流动[1]，农村劳动力的大量转移逐渐成为普遍现象[2]。农村劳动力大规模的转移与“三农”问题有着密切的关联，也是解决“三农”问题的关键，因此引起了社会各界的关注，研究人员对此展开了大量研究，主要包括四个方面：农村劳动力的转移特点与存在问题、劳动力转移的驱动因素、劳动力转移的效应、转移劳动力的管理等。其中最为常见的是农村劳动力转移特点[3-4]和存在问题的研究[5-6]，其次是劳动力转移的驱动因素研究[7-8]，这些研究使得研究人员得以理解与把握农村劳动力转移的一般规律[9]，针对转移过程中出现的问题提出相应的对策[9-10]，并对劳动力转移的趋势与数量加以预测[1],[11]，从而实现农村劳动力转移的有效管理[5],[12]。