摘要：关于企业的安全生产问题，一直是我国在位于经济高速增长过程中，长期以来需要额外关注的重点问题。为了保证企业安全生产，防止重特大事故的发生，最大限度减少人员伤亡和财产损失，我国对易发重特大事故的行业领域采取风险分级管控、隐患排查治理双重预防性工作机制。风险分级管控方法是我国评价企业整体安全风险等级的现行有效方法，它依据国家法律、法规及行业标准，运用科学的评价方法，对机械制造类企业的危险和有害因素进行定性、定量分析。

本文通过应用第三方评测机构所采用的风险管控简化方案和安监局推崇的标准方案以及本人基于AHP-LS研究风险权重方法，这三种方法对该企业进行风险辨识、评估、分级，讨论对不同规模、不同生产领域的企业所采用的方案适用性进行比较研究。研究表明，简化案适用于大面积普查和风险少的小微企业；标准方案更适合风险多的大中企业；而对易产生风险结的较重大风险，宜使用基于AHP-LS研究风险权重方法。

关键词： 风险分级管控；安全评价；风险辨识；双重预防机制

An enterprise security risk identification assessment and hierarchical control

Abstract: As for the safety production of enterprises, it has always been a key issue that China needs to pay more attention to in the process of rapid economic growth. To ensure enterprise production safety, prevent major workplace accidents and minimize casualties and property losses, to take the risk of major workplace accident prone industry field in hierarchical control, hidden governance double preventive mechanisms. Risk grading control method is overall safety evaluation in our country enterprise risk level of the current effective method, which based on national laws, regulations and industry standards, using scientific evaluation method, for mechanical manufacturing enterprises of the dangerous and harmful factors of qualitative and quantitative analysis.

In this paper, by applying the third-party testing agency risk control adopted by the simplified scheme and safety bureau of standard solution and I study LS risk weights based on AHP method, the three methods for the enterprise risk identification, evaluation, classification, discussion with different size, different production adopted by the enterprise in the field of a comparative study of scheme applicability. The study shows that the simplified case is suitable for large scale census and small and micro enterprises with little risk. The standard scheme is more suitable for large and medium-sized enterprises with more risks. However, for the major risks that are prone to generate risk knots, it is advisable to use the LS risk weight method based on AHP.

Keywords: Risk grading control; Safety Assessment; Risk Identification; Double prevention mechanisms

目录

摘要 i

Abstract i

目录 iii

1 绪论 1

1.1 选题背景及意义 1

1.2 国内外研究现状 2

1.2.1 风险管理的研究与发展 2

1.2.2 风险分析的研究与发展 4

1.2.3 风险分级管控的研究 5

1.3 本人研究内容 6

2 风险分级管控 7

3 基于AHP-LS研究风险权重 11

3.1 风险矩阵法概述 11

3.2 层次分析法概述 14

3.2.1 AHP模型计算 14

3.2.2 基于AHP-LS研究风险权重 17

3.2.3 方案总结 21

4 某企业风险分级管控评估方案比较 22

4.1 企业概况 22

4.2 风险分级管控简化案评估 25

4.2.1 评估单元划分 25

4.2.2 风险辨识 25

4.2.3 风险评估 32

4.3 风险分级管控再评估 34

4.3.1 评估单元划分 34

4.3.2 风险辨识 35

4.3.3 风险评估 40

4.4 应用基于AHP-LS研究风险权重方法再评估 47

4.4.1 确定风险点A、B的风险概率权重 47

4.4.2 确定风险点A、B的风险影响权重 53